Every fee counted on every leg, then divided by the time capital is locked. Historical price data, not a return.
Annualised spread against days locked
Simple annualised spread (historical, not a return; not achievable if a leg cannot be filled). A wide spread far to the
right is spread over a longer lock-up than a narrow one on the left. Only rows whose outcomes are exhaustive are plotted.
Hover a point; click it to open the row below.
Kalshi ⇄ Polymarket
Cross-venue
Single venue · same venue, same event
Spreads
Annualised spread = net spread ÷ capital locked, scaled to one year (simple). Historical price data:
not a return, and not achievable if a leg cannot be filled at the listed price.